Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
